1 setembro2014, Pravda Правда.Ру, Pravda.ru http://www.pravda.ru (Россия, Rússia)
30/8/2014,
Dmitry Orlov, blog "Club Orlov"
Dez sinais que, se a Rússia tivesse invadido a
Ucrânia, todos veriam. 5ª-feira passada, o governo ucraniano, ecoado por
porta-vozes da OTAN, declarou que militares russos estariam agora operando
dentro das fronteiras da Ucrânia. Ora... Pode ser que sim, pode ser que não.
Como ter certeza?
5ª-feira passada, o governo ucraniano, ecoado por porta-vozes da OTAN, declarou que militares russos estariam agora operando dentro das fronteiras da Ucrânia. Ora... Pode ser que sim, pode ser que não. Como ter certeza? Já disseram coisa semelhante antes, a data mais próxima, dia 13 de agosto, depois outra vez dia 17 de agosto, e prova nenhuma, nem que fosse prova plantada ou
Ofereço aqui essa útil listinha de dez sinais CLARÍSSIMOS, indiscutivelmente claros, que permitem que, ante qualquer um deles, você possa ter certeza de que sim, a Rússia invadiu a Ucrânia; ou de que, na ausência do sinal, você possa ter certeza de que não, a Rússia não invadiu a Ucrânia na 5ª-feira, e as 'notícias' da 5ª-feira não passam de fabulação (créditos para Roman Kretsul).
Porque se a Rússia tivesse invadido a Ucrânia na 5ª-feira, já logo no sábado à tarde a situação em solo seria do seguinte tipo:
1. A artilharia ucraniana teria mergulhado em silêncio sepulcral quase imediatamente. Já não estaria bombardeando os distritos residenciais de Donetsk e Lugansk. Isso porque antes da invasão os russos já teriam localizado as posições deles, e na 5ª-feira à tarde aquela artilharia teria sido varrida do cenário, por ataques aéreos, de artilharia e com fogo de foguetes em terra, como item um da agenda do business. Os residentes locais estariam nas ruas, festejando o fim do horrível suplício a que estão submetidos.
2. O visual da atividade militar em solo em Donetsk e Lugansk teria mudado dramaticamente. Sem invasão, o que se viam eram pequenos grupos de combatentes resistentes; com invasão, seriam batalhões de 400 soldados e dúzias de blindados, seguidos de comboios de veículos de apoio (caminhões-tanques, de comunicações, cozinhas de campanhas, hospital de campanha e o resto todo). O fluxo de veículos passa a ser ininterrupto, plenamente visível pelos aviões de reconhecimentos e muito claro em fotos de satélites. Acrescentem-se as infindáveis conversas por rádio, sempre em russo, que qualquer um poderia interceptar. Significa que "invasão" é operação que ninguém consegue(ria) esconder.
3. Os militares ucranianos teriam sumido, desaparecido. Soldados, oficiais, comandos, teriam despido os uniformes, largado as armas, e feito o melhor que pudessem para misturar-se à população local. Ninguém se atreveria a apostar no exército ucraniano contra o exército russo. A única vitória militar da Ucrânia contra a Rússia aconteceu na batalha de Konotop em 1659, mas naquele tempo a Ucrânia era aliada ao Khanato da Crimeia; e, agora, todos já devem ter visto que a Crimeia não está lutando ao lado da Ucrânia.
4. Se a Rússia tivesse invadido na 5ª-feira, haveria postos russos de controle por toda parte. Civis locais poderiam andar por onde quisessem, mas qualquer um associado com o governo da Ucrânia, estrangeiro ou nacional, estaria detido para ser interrogado. Um sistema de seleção já estaria implantado, para desmobilizar todos os recém alistados ao exército ucraniano e providenciar o retorno deles às suas regiões nativas; e voluntários e comandantes já estariam alocados em centros de detenção, até que se determinasse se ordenaram a prática de crimes de guerra.
5. A maioria dos pontos de fronteira na fronteira da Ucrânia já estariam sob controle dos russos. Alguns teriam sido reforçados com defesas aéreas e sistemas de artilharia e batalhões blindados, para dissuadir as forças da OTAN que por acaso se interessassem por fingir que invadiam alguma coisa. O trânsito de civis e bens humanitários é livre, claro. Homens de negócios podem passar, desde que preencham todos os formulários (escritos em russo).
6. Se tivesse invadido a Ucrânia, a Rússia já teria implantado sua zona aérea de exclusão sobre toda a Ucrânia. Voos civis já estaria cancelados, todos. Haveria uma legião de meninos-de-recados do Departamento de Estado dos EUA, agentes da CIA e do Mossad, muita gente de ONGs ocidentais, todos se empurrando nos guichês do aeroporto Borispol em Kiev. Vários agarrados nervosamente aos seus telefones por satélite, tentando falar com qualquer um. Políticos ocidentais exigem que aquela gente seja imediatamente evacuada, mas as autoridades russas precisam interrogar todos, antes de deixá-los partir, porque há alta possibilidade de que muitos deles estejam envolvidos (cúmplices) em crimes de guerra.
7. Aquelas caras-de-televisão ucranianas de sempre, como o presidente Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk e outros, teriam sumido, se a Rússia tivesse invadido a Ucrânia, e não estariam dando entrevista a TODOS os canais da mídia ocidental, sem parar. Ninguém, ninguém mesmo, saberia do paradeiro deles. Haveria boatos de que já teriam fugido do país. As mansões onde vivem teriam sido invadidas e destruídas e multidões teriam visto, embasbacadas, que as casas eram adornadas com urinóis de ouro. Nenhum oligarca ucraniano seria acessível, inencontráveis, exceto Igor Kolomoisky, senhor da guerra, descoberto em sua residência, abandonado pelos criados, morto por ataque cardíaco (contribuição do Saker).
8. Alguns dos mais de 800 mil refugiados ucranianos já estariam começando a voltar, da Rússia, se a Rússia tivesse invadido a Ucrânia na 5ª-feira. Lá, têm de morar em barracas, alguns na região vizinha de Rostov, mas, com o inverno chegando, só pensariam em voltar para casa porque, se a Rússia tivesse invadido a Ucrânia, os bombardeios teriam acabado. E com os refugiados, já estariam chegando equipes de construção, caminhões de cimento, e caminhões com fios e tijolos e canos não parariam de chegar, para começar a reconstruir e reparar os estragos causados pelos bombardeios (tudo isso, claro, se a Rússia tivesse invadido a Ucrânia na 5ª-feira).
9. Haveria a mais intensa atividade diplomática e militar em todo o mundo, especialmente na Europa; e as forças militares dos EUA estariam em alerta máximo, diplomatas entrando e saindo de jatinhos pelo mundo, em conferências sem fim. O presidente Obama já teria convocado conferência de imprensa, para anunciar que "ainda não temos uma estratégia para a Ucrânia". A estratégia de sempre, dos conselheiros militares de Obama, de "bombardeie um pouco e 'vamvê comé que fica', ajudaria pouco (se a Rússia tivesse invadido a Ucrânia na 5ª-feira).
10. Se a Rússia tivesse invadido a Ucrânia na 5ª-feira, Kiev já se teria rendido. Haveria tanques russos na praça Maidan. Infantaria russa, cuidando dos remanescentes da Guarda Nacional da Ucrânia. Kiev estaria sob toque de recolher. A tomada de Kiev seria muito parecida com "Choque e Pavor" em Bagdá: uns poucos bangs em tom bem alto e, depois, um gemido.
Pronto. Armado com a lista acima, você mesmo pode decidir se a Rússia invadiu ou não invadiu a Ucrânia, na 5ª passada.
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august 30, 2014, Club Orlov http://cluborlov.blogspot.in
Last Thursday the Ukrainian government,
echoed by NATO spokesmen, declared that the the Russian military is now
operating within Ukraine's borders. Well, maybe it is and maybe it isn't; what
do you know? They said the same thing before, most recently on August 13, and
then on August 17, each time with either no evidence or fake evidence. But
let's give them the benefit of the doubt.
You be the judge. I put together this helpful list of top ten telltale signs that will allow you to determine whether indeed Russia invaded Ukraine last Thursday, or whether Thursday's announcement is yet another confabulation. (Credit to Roman Kretsul).
Because if Russia invaded on Thursday morning, this is what the situation on the ground would look like by Saturday afternoon.
1. Ukrainian artillery fell silent almost immediately. They are no longer shelling residential districts of Donetsk and Lugansk. This is because their locations had been pinpointed prior to the operation, and by Thursday afternoon they were completely wiped out using air attacks, artillery and ground-based rocket fire, as the first order of business. Local residents are overjoyed that their horrible ordeal is finally at an end.
2. The look of military activity on the ground in Donetsk and Lugansk has changed dramatically. Whereas before it involved small groups of resistance fighters, the Russians operate in battalions of 400 men and dozens of armored vehicles, followed by convoys of support vehicles (tanker trucks, communications, field kitchens, field hospitals and so on). The flow of vehicles in and out is non-stop, plainly visible on air reconnaissance and satellite photos. Add to that the relentless radio chatter, all in Russian, which anyone who wants to can intercept, and the operation becomes impossible to hide.
3. The Ukrainian military has promptly vanished. Soldiers and officers alike have taken off their uniforms, abandoned their weapons, and are doing their best to blend in with the locals. Nobody thought the odds of the Ukrainian army against the Russians were any good. Ukraine's only military victory against Russia was at the battle of Konotop in 1659, but at the time Ukraine was allied with the mighty Khanate of Crimea, and, you may have noticed, Crimea is not on Ukraine's side this time around.
4. There are Russian checkpoints everywhere. Local civilians are allowed through, but anyone associated with a government, foreign or domestic, is detained for questioning. A filtration system has been set up to return demobilized Ukrainian army draftees to their native regions, while the volunteers and the officers are shunted to pretrial detention centers, to determine whether they had ordered war crimes to be committed.
5. Most of Ukraine's border crossings are by now under Russian control. Some have been reinforced with air defense and artillery systems and tank battalions, to dissuade NATO forces from attempting to stage an invasion. Civilians and humanitarian goods are allowed through. Businessmen are allowed through once they fill out the required forms (which are in Russian).
6. Russia has imposed a no-fly zone over all of Ukraine. All civilian flights have been cancelled. There is quite a crowd of US State Department staffers, CIA and Mossad agents, and Western NGO people stuck at Borispol airport in Kiev. Some are nervously calling everyone they know on their satellite phones. Western politicians are demanding that they be evacuated immediately, but Russian authorities want to hold onto them until their possible complicity in war crimes has been determined.
7. The usual Ukrainian talking heads, such as president Poroshenko, PM Yatsenyuk and others, are no longer available to be interviewed by Western media. Nobody quite knows where they are. There are rumors that they have already fled the country. Crowds have stormed their abandoned residences, and were amazed to discover that they were all outfitted with solid gold toilets. Nor are the Ukrainian oligarchs anywhere to be found, except for the warlord Igor Kolomoisky, who was found in his residence, abandoned by his henchmen, dead from a heart attack. (Contributed by the Saker.)
8. Some of the over 800,000 Ukrainian refugees are starting to stream back in from Russia. They were living in tent cities, many of them in the nearby Rostov region, but with the winter coming they are eager to get back home, now that the shelling is over. Along with them, construction crews, cement trucks and flatbeds stacked with pipe, cable and rebar are streaming in, to repair the damage from the shelling.
9. There is all sorts of intense diplomatic and military activity around the world, especially in Europe and the US. Military forces are on highest alert, diplomats are jetting around and holding conferences. President Obama just held a press conference to announce that “We don't have a strategy on Ukraine yet.” His military advisers tell him that his usual strategy of “bomb a little and see what happens” is not likely to be helpful in this instance.
10. Kiev has surrendered. There are Russian tanks on the Maidan Square. Russian infantry is mopping up the remains of Ukraine's National Guard. A curfew has been announced. The operation to take Kiev resembled “Shock and Awe” in Baghdad: a few loud bangs and then a whimper.
Armed with this list, you too should be able to determine whether or not Russia has invaded Ukraine last Thursday.
You be the judge. I put together this helpful list of top ten telltale signs that will allow you to determine whether indeed Russia invaded Ukraine last Thursday, or whether Thursday's announcement is yet another confabulation. (Credit to Roman Kretsul).
Because if Russia invaded on Thursday morning, this is what the situation on the ground would look like by Saturday afternoon.
1. Ukrainian artillery fell silent almost immediately. They are no longer shelling residential districts of Donetsk and Lugansk. This is because their locations had been pinpointed prior to the operation, and by Thursday afternoon they were completely wiped out using air attacks, artillery and ground-based rocket fire, as the first order of business. Local residents are overjoyed that their horrible ordeal is finally at an end.
2. The look of military activity on the ground in Donetsk and Lugansk has changed dramatically. Whereas before it involved small groups of resistance fighters, the Russians operate in battalions of 400 men and dozens of armored vehicles, followed by convoys of support vehicles (tanker trucks, communications, field kitchens, field hospitals and so on). The flow of vehicles in and out is non-stop, plainly visible on air reconnaissance and satellite photos. Add to that the relentless radio chatter, all in Russian, which anyone who wants to can intercept, and the operation becomes impossible to hide.
3. The Ukrainian military has promptly vanished. Soldiers and officers alike have taken off their uniforms, abandoned their weapons, and are doing their best to blend in with the locals. Nobody thought the odds of the Ukrainian army against the Russians were any good. Ukraine's only military victory against Russia was at the battle of Konotop in 1659, but at the time Ukraine was allied with the mighty Khanate of Crimea, and, you may have noticed, Crimea is not on Ukraine's side this time around.
4. There are Russian checkpoints everywhere. Local civilians are allowed through, but anyone associated with a government, foreign or domestic, is detained for questioning. A filtration system has been set up to return demobilized Ukrainian army draftees to their native regions, while the volunteers and the officers are shunted to pretrial detention centers, to determine whether they had ordered war crimes to be committed.
5. Most of Ukraine's border crossings are by now under Russian control. Some have been reinforced with air defense and artillery systems and tank battalions, to dissuade NATO forces from attempting to stage an invasion. Civilians and humanitarian goods are allowed through. Businessmen are allowed through once they fill out the required forms (which are in Russian).
6. Russia has imposed a no-fly zone over all of Ukraine. All civilian flights have been cancelled. There is quite a crowd of US State Department staffers, CIA and Mossad agents, and Western NGO people stuck at Borispol airport in Kiev. Some are nervously calling everyone they know on their satellite phones. Western politicians are demanding that they be evacuated immediately, but Russian authorities want to hold onto them until their possible complicity in war crimes has been determined.
7. The usual Ukrainian talking heads, such as president Poroshenko, PM Yatsenyuk and others, are no longer available to be interviewed by Western media. Nobody quite knows where they are. There are rumors that they have already fled the country. Crowds have stormed their abandoned residences, and were amazed to discover that they were all outfitted with solid gold toilets. Nor are the Ukrainian oligarchs anywhere to be found, except for the warlord Igor Kolomoisky, who was found in his residence, abandoned by his henchmen, dead from a heart attack. (Contributed by the Saker.)
8. Some of the over 800,000 Ukrainian refugees are starting to stream back in from Russia. They were living in tent cities, many of them in the nearby Rostov region, but with the winter coming they are eager to get back home, now that the shelling is over. Along with them, construction crews, cement trucks and flatbeds stacked with pipe, cable and rebar are streaming in, to repair the damage from the shelling.
9. There is all sorts of intense diplomatic and military activity around the world, especially in Europe and the US. Military forces are on highest alert, diplomats are jetting around and holding conferences. President Obama just held a press conference to announce that “We don't have a strategy on Ukraine yet.” His military advisers tell him that his usual strategy of “bomb a little and see what happens” is not likely to be helpful in this instance.
10. Kiev has surrendered. There are Russian tanks on the Maidan Square. Russian infantry is mopping up the remains of Ukraine's National Guard. A curfew has been announced. The operation to take Kiev resembled “Shock and Awe” in Baghdad: a few loud bangs and then a whimper.
Armed with this list, you too should be able to determine whether or not Russia has invaded Ukraine last Thursday.
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