20
janeiro 2015, Redecastorphoto http://redecastorphoto.blogspot.com.br (Brasil)
18/1/2015, The Saker – The
Vineyard of the Saker
Traduzido
pelo pessoal da Vila Vudu
As
coisas hoje parecem péssimas e há notícias de operações de combate muito
intensas, particularmente de ataques de artilharia por toda a parte na
Novorrússia. Pelo menos, nas seguintes locações:
1) Aeroporto
de Donetsk: os ucranianos atacaram com muito grande concentração de
blindados e pesado fogo de artilharia. Nessa noite (hora local), todos aqueles
ataques foram repelidos, mas fontes de inteligência informam sobre forte
aumento no número de tanques e blindados em torno do aeroporto de Donestk. Os
novorrussos esperam ataques de Peski e Avdeevka.
2) A
artilharia ucraniana atirou por quase todos os pontos do front. A força aérea
ucraniana também lançou várias bombas de 500 kg, de alta altitude, sobre a
cidade de Gorlovka.
3) Unidades
novorrussas estão devolvendo o fogo, e os arredores de Mariupol estiveram sob
ataques da artilharia novorrussa.
4) Presidente
do Parlamento Novorrusso, Oleg Tsarev, declarou que suas fontes indicam que o
plano ucraniano levado a Poroshenko considerava
vasto espectro de opções: a
melhor delas era libertar os novorrussos de todos os novorrussos; a mínima era
separar Donetsk de Lugansk e as duas cidades, da fronteira russa.
5) Foi
recuperada grande quantidade de armas fabricadas nos EUA, no Novo Terminal do
aeroporto de Donestk.
6) Há relatos
de que as forças ucranianas estão tentando cercar Debaltsevo.
7) Dmitrii
Peskov, porta-voz de Putin, declarou que o lado ucraniano rejeitou todas as
ofertas russas e não apresentaram contrapropostas. Concluiu que os ucranianos
optaram por ir à guerra.
8) Encontra-se aqui, um mapa
atualizado, em alta resolução, dos combates.
9) Os
ucranianos agora estão acusando os novorrussos de usar “superarmas” em Peski.
Não, não são armas nucleares (como o ministro de Defesa Ukie afirmou que estariam sendo usadas
no sul de Lugansk), mas pesados lança-mísseis do tipo Buratino TOS-1. Os Ukies falam
de um “banho de sangue” em
Peski, que, como noticiou J. Hawk, tradutor em ForRuss, é sinal garantido de
pânico.
10) Relatos iniciais parecem indicar
que os militares novorrussos entraram na cidade de Peski.
11) O chefe do
Diretorado Principal de Inteligência [orig. Main Intelligence
Directorate] da Força Aérea Novorrussa, general Petrov, declarou que os
ucranianos reiniciaram os ataques com mísseis balísticos e que vários mísseis
Tochka foram disparados hoje.
12) Zakharchenko
declarou que “estamos agora engajados em pesada operação de contra-ataque, de
Mariupol até Gorlovka”.
Avaliação:
O
que parece fora de discussão é que a junta nazista decidiu reiniciar operações
de combate. Ainda falta saber se é “um” ataque ou “o” ataque, mas o fato de
terem sido usados mísseis balísticos e bombardeiros parece indicar que o ataque
agora é qualitativamente diferente. Tendo mais a considerar que se trate de “o”
ataque.
A
situação em torno do aeroporto resultou em comentários sempre muito mal
informados. Vários itens esperam esclarecimentos.
a) O
aeroporto de Donetsk tem valor militar zero, exceto por ser locação pesadamente
fortificada perto da cidade de Donetsk. A principal importância do aeroporto é
simbólica, porque foi para onde foram mandadas, para combater, as mais duras e
melhores unidades ucranianas.
b) Estou
convencido de que, quando o novo terminal foi tomado pelos novorrussos (o que
não há dúvidas de que aconteceu e se comprova com MUITOS vídeos locais), os
generais da junta puseram-se a berrar pelos respectivos telefones, exigindo
contra-ataque massivo e imediato. O que aconteceu hoje. Segundo fontes
novorrussas, foram repelidas seis ondas de ataques e 15 unidades ucranianas
foram usadas na tentativa de retomar o terminal.
c) Não
surpreende que o ataque tenha falhado. Objetivos pesadamente fortificados, como
o novo terminal, não podem ser tomados por tanques e fogo de artilharia, embora
possam ser bastante danificados. Esses objetivos só podem ser tomados por
grupos de infantaria de assalto muito bem treinados e pesadamente armados,
dispostos a combater em condições muito perigosas e difíceis. Esses grupos,
muitas vezes chamados “grupos de assalto/tempestade” [orig. “assault/storming
groups”] são compostos de combatentes experientes que incluem atiradores
especialistas em metralhadoras, engenheiros de demolição e sapa, atiradores
treinados para tiro de precisão, armas antitanques, lança-granadas, etc. Os
ucranianos não contam com muitas unidades desse tipo, nem são unidades que
possam ser treinadas em poucas semanas ou mesmo em poucos meses. Essa é a razão
pela qual o assalto ucraniano fracassou e muito provavelmente continuará a
fracassar.
Se
esse foi de fato “o” ataque ucraniano tão esperado, então confirma plenamente o
que todos preveem há muito tempo: os ucranianos estão apostando em grande
número de tanques, blindados, peças de artilharia e soldados de infantaria,
para sobrepujar as defesas novorrussas. Essa é estratégia perdedora, não só
porque os combatentes novorrussos, hoje, já muito altamente experientes e
endurecidos em combate terão desempenho sempre infinitamente melhor que os
aterrorizados e embrutecidos ucranianos, com só um mês de combates no
currículo, mas também porque o inevitável banho de sangue que resulta desse
tipo de ataque quebrará rapidamente a moral e a vontade do lado ucraniano.
O
fator mais importante aqui não é se os ucranianos perderam, mas se os
novorrussos serão capazes de vencer sem força declarada de intervenção russa
para ajuda-los. Meu sentimento pessoal é que sim, os novorrussos conseguirão
fazer retroceder o ataque ucraniano, e a Rússia não precisará intervir
abertamente (pelo que tenho ouvido, o Voentorg já
está operando com plena capacidade, daí os TOS-1 em Peski).
Tenho
de confessar que fico nervoso quando vejo Zakharchenko, Givi e Motorola nas
linhas de frente, quase literalmente ao alcance dos rifles ucranianos de
assalto. Não compreendo plenamente porque sentem que precisam fazer isso, mas
sinto um nó no estômago quando os vejo, principalmente quando aparecem juntos,
a apenas poucos passos um do outro. Quem for religioso, por favor reze por
esses homens de coragem.
The Saker
---------
JANUARY 18, 2015
Novorussia SITREP: Intensive combat operation all
over the line of contact in Novorussia
JANUARY 18, 2015, http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com.br/
The Vineyard of the Saker
Things look very bad today
and very intensive combat operations, in particular artillery strikes, are
reported everywhere in Novorussia. At the very least, in the following
locations:
1) Donetsk Airport: the Ukrainians attacked with a fairly large concentration of armor and under heavy artillery fire. As for tonight (local time) all of these attacks have been successfully repelled but intelligences sources are reporting a sharp rise in the number of tanks and armored vehicles all around the Donestk airport. The Novorussians are expecting attacks from Peski and Avdeevka.
2) The Ukrainian artillery has opened for almost everywhere along the front. The Ukrainian airforce has also dropped several 500kg bombs from high altitude on the city of Gorlovka.
3) Novorussian units are returning fire and the outskirts of Mariupol have come under Novorussian artillery attacks.
4) The Chairman of the Novorussian Parliament, Oleg Tsarev, has declared that his sources indicate that the Ukrainian plan submitted to Poroshenko looked at a spectrum of options: the best one was to totally free Novorussian from all Novorussians, the minimal one was to cut-off Donetsk from Luganks and both of these cities from the Russian border.
5) Plenty of US made weapons have been recovered in the New Terminal of the Donestk airport.
6) There are reports that the Ukrainian forces are attempting to encircle Debaltsevo.
7) Putin's spokesman Dmitrii Peskov has declared that the Ukrainian side had rejected all Russian offers and presented no counter-proposals. He concluded that the Ukrainians have chose the option of going to war.
8) Please click here for an high res updated map of combats.
9) The Ukrainians are now accusing the Novorussians of using "super-weapons" in Peski. No, no nuclear devices (as the Ukie defense minister claimed were used south of Lugansk), but heavy-flame throwers of the Buratino TOS-1 type. The Ukies speak of a "bloodbath in Peski" which, as J.Hawk, the translator for ForRuss noticed, is a sure sign of panic.
10) Initial reports seem to indicate the the Novorussian military has entered the town of Peski.
11) The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the NAF, General Petrov, has declared that the Ukrainians have resumed ballistic missile strikes and that several Tochka missiles were fired today.
12) Zakharchenko has declared that "we are now engaged in a heavy counter-attack operation from Mariupol to Gorlovka".
Evaluation:
It appears certain is that Nazi junta as decided to resume combat operations. Whether this is "an" attack or "the" attack remains to be seen, but the fact that ballistic missiles and bombers have been used seem to indicate that this one is qualitatively different. My therefore leaning more towards the "the" attack option.
The situation around the airport has resulted in many poorly informed comments. The following needs to be clarified.
a) The Donetsk airport has zero military value other then being a heavily fortified location near the city of Donetsk. The main importance of the airport is symbolic as it was the place where by far the toughest and best Ukrainian units were sent into combat.
b) I am pretty sure that when the new terminal was taken over by the Novorussians (this indisputable as there is *a lot* of footage of this even) the junta generals grabbed their phone and began screaming into it demanding an immediate and massive counter attack. This is what happened today. According to Novorussian sources a total of 6 attack waves were repelled and 15 Ukrainian MBTs used in the attempt to retake the new terminal.
c) It is not surprising that this attack failed. Heavily fortified objectives like the new terminal cannot be taken by tank and artillery fire, though they can be damaged by them. Such objective can only be taken by very well trained and heavily armed infantry assault groups capable and willing to fight in very dangerous and difficult conditions. Such groups, often called "assault/storming groups" are composed of experienced fighters which include machine-gunners, demolition-sapper combat engineers, snipers, anti-tank weapons, mortars, grenade-launchers, etc. These are not the kind of units which the Ukrainians have a lot of, nor are these the kind of units which can be trained in a few weeks or even a few months. This is why the Ukrainian assault have failed and most likely will continue to fail.
If this is indeed "the" much expected Ukrainian attack, then it fully confirms what everybody has been predicting: the Ukrainians are betting on large numbers of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery pieces and infantrymen to overwhelm the Novorussian defenders. This is a losing strategy because not only will the by now highly experienced and combat hardened Novorussians perform infinitely better than the terrified and/or brainwashed Ukrainians with just a month or so of bootcamp under their belts, but because the inevitable bloodbath resulting from this kind of attack will rapidly break the willpower and morale of the Ukrainian side.
The single most important factor here is not whether the Ukrainians will lose, but whether the Novorussians will be capable of winning without an over Russian intervention to support them. My personal feeling is that yes, the Novorussians will succeed in beating back the Ukrainian assault and that Russia will not have to intervene openly (from what I hear the Voentorg is already working at full capacity, hence the TOS-1 in Peski).
I have to confess that I am nervous when I see Zakharchenko, Givi and Motorola at the very front lines quite literally within reach of the Ukrainian assault rifles. I do fully understand why they feel that they have to do that, but I also get a knot in my stomach when I see them, especially all together a standing a few feet from each other. If you are religious, please pray for these courageous men.
The Saker
1) Donetsk Airport: the Ukrainians attacked with a fairly large concentration of armor and under heavy artillery fire. As for tonight (local time) all of these attacks have been successfully repelled but intelligences sources are reporting a sharp rise in the number of tanks and armored vehicles all around the Donestk airport. The Novorussians are expecting attacks from Peski and Avdeevka.
2) The Ukrainian artillery has opened for almost everywhere along the front. The Ukrainian airforce has also dropped several 500kg bombs from high altitude on the city of Gorlovka.
3) Novorussian units are returning fire and the outskirts of Mariupol have come under Novorussian artillery attacks.
4) The Chairman of the Novorussian Parliament, Oleg Tsarev, has declared that his sources indicate that the Ukrainian plan submitted to Poroshenko looked at a spectrum of options: the best one was to totally free Novorussian from all Novorussians, the minimal one was to cut-off Donetsk from Luganks and both of these cities from the Russian border.
5) Plenty of US made weapons have been recovered in the New Terminal of the Donestk airport.
6) There are reports that the Ukrainian forces are attempting to encircle Debaltsevo.
7) Putin's spokesman Dmitrii Peskov has declared that the Ukrainian side had rejected all Russian offers and presented no counter-proposals. He concluded that the Ukrainians have chose the option of going to war.
8) Please click here for an high res updated map of combats.
9) The Ukrainians are now accusing the Novorussians of using "super-weapons" in Peski. No, no nuclear devices (as the Ukie defense minister claimed were used south of Lugansk), but heavy-flame throwers of the Buratino TOS-1 type. The Ukies speak of a "bloodbath in Peski" which, as J.Hawk, the translator for ForRuss noticed, is a sure sign of panic.
10) Initial reports seem to indicate the the Novorussian military has entered the town of Peski.
11) The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the NAF, General Petrov, has declared that the Ukrainians have resumed ballistic missile strikes and that several Tochka missiles were fired today.
12) Zakharchenko has declared that "we are now engaged in a heavy counter-attack operation from Mariupol to Gorlovka".
Evaluation:
It appears certain is that Nazi junta as decided to resume combat operations. Whether this is "an" attack or "the" attack remains to be seen, but the fact that ballistic missiles and bombers have been used seem to indicate that this one is qualitatively different. My therefore leaning more towards the "the" attack option.
The situation around the airport has resulted in many poorly informed comments. The following needs to be clarified.
a) The Donetsk airport has zero military value other then being a heavily fortified location near the city of Donetsk. The main importance of the airport is symbolic as it was the place where by far the toughest and best Ukrainian units were sent into combat.
b) I am pretty sure that when the new terminal was taken over by the Novorussians (this indisputable as there is *a lot* of footage of this even) the junta generals grabbed their phone and began screaming into it demanding an immediate and massive counter attack. This is what happened today. According to Novorussian sources a total of 6 attack waves were repelled and 15 Ukrainian MBTs used in the attempt to retake the new terminal.
c) It is not surprising that this attack failed. Heavily fortified objectives like the new terminal cannot be taken by tank and artillery fire, though they can be damaged by them. Such objective can only be taken by very well trained and heavily armed infantry assault groups capable and willing to fight in very dangerous and difficult conditions. Such groups, often called "assault/storming groups" are composed of experienced fighters which include machine-gunners, demolition-sapper combat engineers, snipers, anti-tank weapons, mortars, grenade-launchers, etc. These are not the kind of units which the Ukrainians have a lot of, nor are these the kind of units which can be trained in a few weeks or even a few months. This is why the Ukrainian assault have failed and most likely will continue to fail.
If this is indeed "the" much expected Ukrainian attack, then it fully confirms what everybody has been predicting: the Ukrainians are betting on large numbers of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery pieces and infantrymen to overwhelm the Novorussian defenders. This is a losing strategy because not only will the by now highly experienced and combat hardened Novorussians perform infinitely better than the terrified and/or brainwashed Ukrainians with just a month or so of bootcamp under their belts, but because the inevitable bloodbath resulting from this kind of attack will rapidly break the willpower and morale of the Ukrainian side.
The single most important factor here is not whether the Ukrainians will lose, but whether the Novorussians will be capable of winning without an over Russian intervention to support them. My personal feeling is that yes, the Novorussians will succeed in beating back the Ukrainian assault and that Russia will not have to intervene openly (from what I hear the Voentorg is already working at full capacity, hence the TOS-1 in Peski).
I have to confess that I am nervous when I see Zakharchenko, Givi and Motorola at the very front lines quite literally within reach of the Ukrainian assault rifles. I do fully understand why they feel that they have to do that, but I also get a knot in my stomach when I see them, especially all together a standing a few feet from each other. If you are religious, please pray for these courageous men.
The Saker
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