May 7, 2019, Strategic Culture Foundation (Russia) https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/05/07/nuclear-war-vs-belt-and-road-initiative-why-china-will-prevail/
Federico Pieraccini*
The
global trend in international relations is often difficult to discern. But
one can be helped in this task by looking at two events, organized in
Washington and Beijing, comparing the different themes, participants,
objectives, and broached for discussion. After all, we are
talking about the two largest economies in the world, two colossi directing and
shaping global culture, behavior and world opinion.
The
last few weeks have offered the international community an opportunity to
reflect. Two events took place in Washington and Beijing that, in terms of
impact, depth, participation and issues discussed, are striking contrasts.
In
Beijing at the Belt
and Road Forum over 40 world leaders discussed the Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI), a project that will transform the entire Eurasian
continent, improving free trade between dozens of countries by investing in
transport infrastructure as well as in energy and technological cooperation.
The leader of this silent industrial revolution is China’s Xi Jinping, casting
ancient ambitions and perspectives into the new millennium, anxious to once
again acquire the leading role in global civilization.
The
BRI is a gigantic project that will continue to expand in the years to come and
at the rate the current technology allows, while of course remaining cognizant
of the needs of the countries involved in the Chinese project. The numbers of
participants at Beijing’s BRI event are astonishing, with more than 5,000
delegates, 37 heads of state (including that of G7 member Italy), and 10 of the
most important members
of ASEAN. A hundred and twenty-five countries have signed intentions to cooperate grand project, and 30 organizations have ratified 170 agreements that total a projected investment by the People’s Bank of China of over 1.3 trillion dollars from 2013 to 2027. This is what Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley’s Chief China Economist said:
of ASEAN. A hundred and twenty-five countries have signed intentions to cooperate grand project, and 30 organizations have ratified 170 agreements that total a projected investment by the People’s Bank of China of over 1.3 trillion dollars from 2013 to 2027. This is what Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley’s Chief China Economist said:
“China’s
investment in B&R countries will increase by 14% annually over the next two
years, and the total investment amount could double to $1.2-1.3 trillion by
2027.”
It
is a revolutionary project that will characterize the next few decades if not
centuries. It will offer a stark contrast to the American drive for hegemonic
domination by demonstrating the capacity of humanity to overcome conflicts and
wars through cooperation and shared prosperity.
Washington
is left demanding loyalty in exchange for nothing (but with Donald Trump, even
this little is uncertain). Unable to inflict damage on Russia and China, the US
focuses on pressuring her European allies through a trade war of duties,
tariffs, technological bans ( Huawei’s 5G) and sanctions (against Iran and
European banks) in order to favor US companies.
Reflecting
the moral of Aesop’s fable “The North Wind and the Sun”, Beijing behaves in the
opposite manner, offering in the BRI project win-win cooperation and the
benefits that accrue from this. The project tends to improve people’s living
standards through the huge loans extended to improve such basic infrastructure
as railways, schools, roads, aqueducts, bridges, ports, internet connectivity
and hospitals. Beijing aims to create a sustainable system whereby dozens of
countries cooperate with each other for the collective benefit of their people.
The
Eurasian continent has struggled over the last few decades to attain the same
level of wealth as the West as a result of wars of aggression and economic
terrorism committed by countries in search of a utopian global hegemony.
The
Chinese initiative aims to offer to all the countries involved equal
opportunities for development based not on military and/or economic power but
on a real capacity to improve the well-being of all parties involved.
“BRI
is now supported by no less than 126 states and territories, plus a host of
international organizations. This is the new, truthful, realistic face of the
“international community” – bigger, more diversified and more representative
than the G20.”
This
Chinese initiative could have only taken place in a post-unipolar world with
multiple centers of power. Washington is perfectly aware of the changes that
have occurred over the last 10 years, and the accompanying change in attitude
of policy makers can be seen in the drafting of two documents that are
fundamental for every US administration, namely, the Nuclear
Posture Review(NPR) and the National
Defense Strategy (NDS).
These
two documents explain how the United States sees the world and what it intends
to do to fight the emerging multipolar world order. Compared to Obama and his
administration, Trump, Bolton and Pompeo are more anchored to the current
reality, understanding well that Russia and China are their equal militarily.
Obama, of course, infamously dismissed Russia as a regional power no more than
five years ago.
Trump
cannot afford a conflict with Venezuela, Iran or North Korea, whether
militarily or politically. In the case of Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil do not
seem too keen on sacrificing themselves on behalf of Washington; and there are
no jihadists to arm and launch against defenseless civilians as happened in the
Middle East, so there is no force in the field capable of defeating a strongly
patriotic nation dedicated to resisting US imperialism. Attacking Iran would
result in a devastating Iranian response targeting US troops deployed in dozens
of bases scattered throughout the Middle East and inflicting losses that would
be too costly for Washington, making any gains made pyrrhic. As for North
Korea, Kim cannot be touched thanks to nuclear deterrence.
What
remains for Trump and his neocons are empty threats of war, documents declaring
Russia and China as opponents to be defeated, and a great deal of war
propaganda for the purposes of filling up the coffers of US arms manufacturers.
And
now we come to the event organized in Washington as Beijing was busy discussing
how to revolutionize three-quarters of the globe. The Brookings Institute, a
think tank, organized a meeting that lasted several hours to discuss “The future of US extended deterrence“,
focussing on the tools needed to deal with an attack from America’s opponents.
Anyone
who has any experience with such conferences knows that it is often companies
linked to the arms industry that fund such events, thereby encouraging
speakers, guests and politicians to take a very hawkish line for the purposes
of scaring the population into justifying an increase in arms spending.
This
is exactly what happened at the event organized by Brookings, where the Deputy
Undersecretary of Defense from the Trump administration, David Trachtenberg,
explained to the audience how the US nuclear deterrent is now coming to the end
of its life cycle after a period of 30, 40 or 50 years. The Undersecretary did
not mention the overall figure that would be needed to modernize Washington’s
entire nuclear triad (estimates put the figure at around a trillion
dollars) and preferred instead to speak about a general
increase in the defense budget of $60-70 billion dollars to begin to address
the problems.
Often
the numbers do not prove everything but are nevertheless useful in helping us
better understand certain events. Former US President Jimmy Carter provided
a useful explanation for how the Chinese came to surpass the United States:
“The
US is the most warlike nation in the world, forcing other countries to adopt
our American principles. How many miles of high-speed railroads do we have in
this country? China has around 18,000 miles (29,000 km) of high speed rail
lines while the US has wasted, I think, $3 trillion on military spending; it’s
more than you can imagine. China has not wasted a single penny on war, and
that’s why they’re ahead of us. I think the difference is if you take $3
trillion and put it in American infrastructure, you’d probably have $2 trillion
leftover; we’d have high-speed railroads that are maintained properly. Our
education system would be as good as that of, say, South Korea or Hong Kong.”
Washington
pressures its allies to join in seeking to damage Washington’s adversaries but
ends up pushing allies
and opponents closer together, as occurred when it walked away
from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) agreement with Iran while
the Europeans remained committed to it. Washington may be able to lean on
European allies for the time being, but with the vast BRI project increasingly
attracting the attention of Europeans, these days may be numbered, especially
with the BRI project bringing the prospect of doing away with the US dollar as
a reserve currency necessary for trade between countries.
Trump
and his administration are acting in a multipolar context as if they are still
in a unipolar one, behaving like a hegemonic superpower that does not care
about the consequences of its actions, even against allies. This arrogant
attitude will come back to bite the United States, not only undermining its
economy but also the viability of the US dollar remaining as the global reserve
currency.
By
Trump behaving like a bull in a china shop, friends and enemies alike are
forced to seek ways to counterbalance the United States economically and
militarily. Of course Europe still remains subservient to the US, but other
countries not in Washington’s good books seem to have understood the historical
period we are going through, preferring dialogue and balancing between powers
(a typical example being Erdogan’s Turkey, which is in
neither camp but uses both for its own purposes) rather than an absolute
declaration of loyalty to one side or the other.
China
and Russia are perfectly comfortable operating in today’s fluid geopolitical
environment, as this gives them the opportunity to offer countries resisting
Washington’s hegemony the military and economic means to persevere and
eventually prevail. It is an extremely effective strategy as it places before
Washington red lines that cannot be crossed, reducing or eliminating the
possibility of a new conflict (something that perhaps even Trump basically
appreciates, given that this remains the last election promise that he has not
yet broken).
Observing these two
conferences held in Beijing and Washington within a week of each other, with
their contrasting emphases, only highlights the differences between these two
countries. On one side, China seeks integration, cooperation and development
for the collective benefit of almost three billion people. On the other side,
we see the US discussing the modernization of its nuclear triad, whose only
contribution to humanity is its ability to wipe it out, only there to bully and
intimidate those not prepared to kowtow to Washington’s diktats.
*Federico Pieraccini Independent
freelance writer specialized in international affairs, conflicts, politics and
strategies
The views of
individual contributors do not necessarily represent those of the Strategic Culture
Foundation.
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